Why Crowdsourcing Works
Though specific terms and technologies used for crowdsourcing may be relatively new, the underlying principles that make it attractive for certain tasks are deeply rooted in well-known and well-studied group dynamics and group intelligence phenomena.
In his book The Wisdom of Crowds, author James Surowiecki provides case studies of crowd behavior at work accomplishing amazing feats throughout the 20th Century. Among these are Francis Galton’s ox, locating the Scorpion, and polling the audience, all excellent examples we encourage you to take some time to read, along with the rest of his book, in order to more fully appreciate the impact of group dynamics.
Surowiecki’s book also examines in detail four conditions that both characterize wise crowds and distinguish them from mass mania and collective folly:
Condition 1: Diversity of Opinion. Each person should have some private information, even if it’s just an eccentric interpretation of the known facts.
Condition 2: Independence. People’s opinions should not be determined by the opinions of those around them.
Condition 3: Decentralization. People must be able to specialize and draw on local knowledge.
Condition 4. Aggregation. Some mechanism needs to exist for turning private judgments into a collective decision.
If a group satisfies all four of these conditions, its judgment is likely to be accurate. But why? At heart, the answer rests on a mathematical truism. If you ask a group of diverse, independent people to make a prediction or estimate a probability, and then average those estimates, the errors each of them makes in coming up with an answer will cancel themselves out. Each person’s guess, you might say, has two components: information and error. Subtract the error, and you’re left with the information.
